Six reasons Washington will win the Pac-12 in 2021 — and six reasons it won’t (2024)

SEATTLE — The Washington Huskies absolutely, positively will win the Pac-12 this season.

Unless they don’t, in which case you should have seen it coming.

Here are six reasons to believe the Huskies have the best team in the conference and six reasons to put your money on somebody else.

Why Washington will win the Pac-12

1. Listen: the Huskies love Dylan Morris. Coaches rave about his poise and maturity. Teammates praise his leadership. He just had the best preseason camp of his young career. He’s smart, he’s decisive, he can make every throw, and he has been running a pro-style offense since third grade. He values possession and will take care of the ball while doing whatever is needed to move the chains. In other words, his style meshes perfectly with the vision head coach Jimmy Lake and coordinator John Donovan have for the offense, and with Morris’ first four career starts under his belt, it’s fair to expect significant improvement in Year 2. It was so obvious that Morris gives the Huskies the best chance to win that Lake — Mr. Competition — didn’t even bother with a quarterback competition during camp. There’s a chance five-star 2020 signee Sam Huard could get pressed into backup duty, depending on the severity of Patrick O’Brien’s injury, but Morris’ progression means the Huskies only will have to rush Huard into action if QB1 is hurt.

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2. Sure, they lost Puka Nacua, Ty Jones and three other receivers to the transfer portal, but the Huskies still should be better at that position than they were last season — and perhaps any season since 2016. Terrell Bynum and Rome Odunze should be a potent duo to stretch the field in different ways, and it would be foolish to discuss the wide receivers without mentioning that tight end Cade Otton could very well lead the team in targets and catches (he did last season, by quite a margin). Would you trade the trio of Otton, Bynum and Odunze for many others in the Pac-12? The Huskies have other promising talents, too, like Texas Tech transfer Ja’Lynn Polk and, once he’s healthy, four-star 2020 signee Jalen McMillan. Throw in spring and preseason camp standout Taj Davis, the speedy slot receiver Giles Jackson and the sure-handed Sawyer Racanelli, and the depth here is solid even without all those outgoing transfers.

3. Loathe as he is to reveal specifics of how he perceives his roster, Lake couldn’t help but single out the offensive line when asked about team strengths, calling the group “extremely veteran, talented and very deep.” Yes, it is. It was last season, too, and every scholarship player returns in 2021. Left tackle Jaxson Kirkland should be a two-time, first-team All-Pac-12 pick by the time this season is over, and sixth-year senior center Luke Wattenberg is the ideal veteran to make all the calls. The line should be able to impose its will on opponents in the running game — with, by the way, every scholarship running back from last season, including the resurgent Richard Newton and up-and-coming Cam Davis — and give Morris plenty of time to throw the ball.

4. This defense could be really, really good, with all-conference candidates at every level. The Huskies have one elite cornerback (Trent McDuffie) and another who could play his way into similar consideration (Kyler Gordon). Edefuan Ulofoshio is a tackling machine at inside linebacker. Ryan Bowman is a seasoned veteran who will set the edge against the run and get after the quarterback. Every interior D-lineman on the depth chart was a four-star recruit, and the same is true of all five starting defensive backs. Star pass rusher Zion Tupuola-Fetui is expected back from injury sooner than originally believed, and even without him, the Huskies go legitimately five deep at outside linebacker. This is as deep as the Huskies have been with blue-chip talent in the internet recruiting era.

5. The schedule hardly could have broken better for the Huskies, who don’t play USC or Utah, face Oregon and Arizona State at home and play four teams on the road the media picked to finish fourth (Stanford), fifth (Oregon State), fifth (Colorado) and sixth (Arizona) in their respective divisions this season. Their toughest road game, of course, comes at Michigan in Week 2, and that’s a huge test, but it won’t affect the Huskies’ pursuit of a division title. They could be favored in every conference game.

Why Washington won’t win the Pac-12

1. You’re not really sold on this offense, are you? The Huskies ran the ball 58 percent of the time during their four-game 2020 season, and vertical threats in the passing game were lacking. Bynum is the only wide receiver on the roster who has caught a touchdown pass in a UW uniform — in fact, he’s the only scholarship wide receiver to have played a snap for the Huskies prior to 2020. This group doesn’t just have plenty to prove — it has everything to prove, and it’s beginning from a disadvantage with McMillan hurt. Let’s not forget that the running game could have been better last year, too, as the Huskies ranked eighth in the Pac-12 at 4.52 yards per carry. They also were prone to slow starts, scoring a combined three points in the first halves of their final two games last season. Until they prove they can be explosive within Donovan’s pro-style scheme, it’s fair to harbor doubts.

2. The Huskies’ best defenses under former coach Chris Petersen were anchored by all-conference defensive linemen like Elijah Qualls, Vita Vea, Greg Gaines and Levi Onwuzurike. Nobody is saying Tuli Letuligasenoa and Taki Taimani can’t continue that legacy, but the Huskies’ defensive interior was lacking last season and has much to prove if UW is to shore up its run defense, in particular. Plus, they’re adjusting to a new coordinator and play caller, with the highly respected Pete Kwiatkowski leaving for Texas and Bob Gregory moving up to take his place. Gregory had a successful run as defensive coordinator at California, but that was more than a decade ago. This will be the first time since 2013 that someone other than Kwiatkowski or Lake will call UW’s defensive plays. You’re not a little concerned about that?

3. So the Huskies are set at cornerback, and they have some promising talent at safety. But how much do you really trust them on the back end? There are a couple of ways to parse the fact that neither of last year’s starting safeties, Asa Turner and Alex Cook, is atop the depth chart this season: Either the new starters (Julius Irvin and Kam Fabiculanan) improved so much during the offseason that coaches simply had no choice but to play them instead, or there just isn’t an obvious starting duo at present. These were UW’s safety tandems in each of Petersen’s New Year’s Six seasons: Budda Baker and Jojo McIntosh (2016); McIntosh and Taylor Rapp (2017); and McIntosh and Rapp again (2018). The Huskies might not have busted a single coverage during those seasons, and their safeties made boatloads of big plays. Are they similarly talented this year? Do they have some enforcers back there who can provide run support? Or will opponents feast underneath and in the middle of the field?

4. Ulofoshio has the skills to anchor this defense, and Jackson Sirmon brings experience, too. But this is football. Injuries happen. If the Huskies can’t keep both of their starting linebackers healthy for a full season, they’ll be dipping into a depth chart with hardly any significant playing time, even in reserve roles. MJ Tafisi showed promise before his injury in 2019, and Daniel Heimuli was a big-time recruit. Maybe those two can plug any gaps that surface. But we don’t even know if Heimuli is available as he recovers from a knee injury, and he’s listed on the depth chart as a backup alongside Carson Bruener, a 2020 signee who has never appeared in a game. There’s no reason why any of those guys can’t become quality players, and hey, maybe the Huskies won’t need them for anything more than rotational snaps. But an injury or two to a starter could reveal some pretty glaring inexperience at that position, and that’s more or less what cost the Huskies in 2019.

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5. No, the Huskies’ schedule is not among the Pac-12’s most taxing. But it’s tougher than meets the eye. First of all, UW has lost three of its past four games to Stanford, and it hasn’t won in Palo Alto since 2007. Playing the Cardinal on the road, one week before a massive showdown with Oregon, is not ideal. And the Huskies host the Ducks one week before hosting an Arizona State team that may very well be the most dangerous squad in the South. That’s a sneaky-brutal three-week stretch. Would you really put money on the Huskies making it out of that 3-0?

6. Throw the bizarre 2020 season out the window: Oregon’s roster is loaded with young talent, and it’s silly to think the Ducks will be anything but really good. Sixth-year senior Anthony Brown is a dual-threat quarterback who can stress defenses in every kind of way. Freshman linebackers Noah Sewell and Justin Flowe will emerge as stars on a revamped defense led by superstar edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, the potential No. 1 pick in next year’s NFL Draft. Oregon returns talent at the skill positions — like wide receivers Johnny Johnson III and Jaylon Redd and tailbacks CJ Verdell and Travis Dye — and will have multiple five-star recruits in its depth. And oh yeah, the Huskies haven’t beaten the Ducks since 2017. The Pac-12 North title runs through Eugene — and even if UW makes it past Oregon, the Huskies could face a USC team with more offensive weapons than anyone else in the league in the conference title game. ASU has dudes. UCLA is clearly getting better. Utah always is a tough out. So is California. The Pac-12 is deeper and more talented than it has been in years. The rest of the country just doesn’t know it yet.

(Photo of Cade Otton: Jeff Halstead / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)