Pac-12 Roundtable: On the NFL draft, early predictions and Larry Scott’s future (2024)

It’s early March, meaning the NCAA basketball tournament is just around the corner. But, hey, it’s always a good time to talk football, and besides, a handful of Pac-12 schools already are on the field for spring practice.

So, here’s our first offseason Pac-12 football roundtable of the year, covering both events of the past two months as well as the upcoming season.

1. With the NFL Scouting Combine done, which Pac-12 players do you think will go in the first round of the 2020 draft?

Tyson Alger (covers Oregon): Justin Herbert is the only lock and there’s a chance he might be the only one from the conference taken in the first round. But Austin Jackson, Laviska Shenault and Brandon Aiyuk could work themselves into contention. And, hey, if there’s a run on quarterbacks, maybe Jacob Eason finds his way in there. It’s not outlandish for an NFL team to take a chance on a rocket arm.

Christian Caple (covers Washington): Oregon’s Justin Herbert should be among the first few quarterbacks taken, and Arizona State receiver Brandon Aiyuk seemed to really help himself at the combine. I know The Athletic’s Dane Brugler has USC offensive tackle Austin Jackson in the first round, too, but that feels like the maximum to me. Colorado receiver Laviska Shenault has the talent to go in the first round, but his injury history and 4.58 40-time at the combine don’t necessarily signal first-round status, even though I think he’ll ball out at the next level. I thought Washington tight end Hunter Bryant might have had a chance to put himself in the late-first-round conversation with a strong combine, but his numbers weren’t there. And I still think it’s possible that UW quarterback Jacob Eason could find his way into the first round, too — his physical traits are that captivating — but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Doug Haller (covers Arizona State): Oregon’s Justin Herbert, USC’s Austin Jackson and Arizona State’s Brandon Aiyuk. Of the trio, Herbert will go first, but he might be the biggest risk. No doubt, he had an outstanding college career, but is he a can’t-miss prospect? I’m not sure. Aiyuk is valuable because he can help right away — if not at receiver, then as a returner. With his recent injuries, Colorado’s Laviska Shenault likely will fall, but if he can stay healthy, he might out-perform them all.

C.J. Holmes (covers Arizona): I think Oregon’s Justin Herbert is a lock. Laviska Shenault certainly is a first-round talent, but his post-combine surgery might scare teams away, especially since they could find a healthier option in this loaded receiver class.

Christopher Kamrani (covers Utah): I’ll go with two and they’re obvious. Oregon’s Justin Herbert likely will go in the top 10 to one of the many QB-needy teams drafting that early. Second, I think USC’s offensive tackle Austin Jackson will go late in the first round. Outside of Penei Sewell, Jackson was the best tackle in the Pac-12 last season. It’s crazy (and I guess not-so-crazy) to not think but know that one team, national-champion LSU, will have more first-round picks than the entire Pac-12. I could be wrong, but I don’t think I am wrong.

David Lombardi (covers Cal and Stanford): Justin Herbert is a first-round lock. Brandon Aiyuk had a solid combine, and I think he has the acceleration and short-area quickness that’ll appeal to NFL offensive minds enough to warrant a first-round selection. And since tackles are always in high demand, I see Austin Jackson coming off the board in the first round. The interesting variable surrounding Aiyuk and Jackson: This draft class is loaded with quality receiver and tackle prospects, so there’ll be real competition to secure that first-round selection.

Antonio Morales (covers USC): I think Justin Herbert, Austin Jackson and Brandon Aiyuk will be taken in the first round.

2. If you had to pick right now (and we’ll ask this again in the summer), who would you pick to win the North and the South?

Lombardi: I just can’t get behind USC while the current coaching leadership is there, even though the Trojans should have the league’s most talented roster. I think Utah repeats in the South, and I think the Utes will face Pac-12 North champion Cal — riding a full season of health from quarterback Chase Garbers — in the conference title game.

Holmes: It’s so early; have we no shame? In the North, I have to go with Oregon. Yes, the Ducks need a new QB. But defensively they should be among the best in the conference again. The Ducks just need to make sure their offense is simply stable to have success in 2020. In the South, I like Arizona State over USC. The Sun Devils are losing big parts of their offense in Brandon Aiyuk and Eno Benjamin. But, man, Herm Edwards is building something in Tempe and Jayden Daniels is going to be an absolute stud in 2020. The staff turnover hurts, but I love the Sun Devils’ returning talent and incoming recruits. I expect Arizona State to be the class of the division.

Kamrani: Who has the guts to not pick Oregon in this roundtable? Not me. In the North, it’ll be Oregon. The Ducks have to replace Justin Herbert and four starters off that offensive line, but Penei Sewell is still there and I think he’s one of the best players in college football. Plus Mario Cristobal loaded up on defense with a bunch of four- and five-star dudes, so, yeah, it’s the Ducks. Again. In the South, it’s a little more murky, but I’ll give the slightest of edges to USC over Arizona State at the moment. Kedon Slovis flourished under Graham Harrell in Year 1, and while the Trojans do lose Michael Pittman Jr., every other star receiver returns. The Trojans have a tough schedule again in 2020, but I think with a revamped staff, Clay Helton’s guys get to Las Vegas as Pac-12 South champs.

Haller: I’ll take California in the North. Justin Wilcox has done a tremendous job in Berkeley. The defense loses key parts, but the system is in place. And having quarterback Chase Garbers healthy for an entire season should be huge. In the South, you always start with USC because of the star power, but in this case, the drama might trump the talent. Clay Helton’s job security again will be a distraction, so I’ll go with Arizona State. The Sun Devils return a rising star in quarterback Jayden Daniels and an experienced defense that returns eight starters.

Morales: Oregon and USC. I think Oregon’s defense is the best unit in the North and should propel it to another division title despite their losses on offense. And USC returns 17 starters while the rest of the Pac-12 South is in a state of flux.

Caple: Oregon in the North and USC in the South. I think Washington will at least challenge in the North, but the Huskies have a lot more to prove at this point. Meanwhile, there simply is no excuse for the Trojans not to win their division. They return a promising starting quarterback, a ton of talent at the skill positions and a bunch of young defensive stars in the making. Defending South champion Utah has to replace basically every key contributor from last season. Arizona won’t be in the conversation. UCLA likely won’t, either. Colorado went 5-7 and just went through a coaching change on top of losing its two best offensive players. Arizona State is my current No. 2 pick, mostly because of quarterback Jayden Daniels, but even the Sun Devils have a lot of holes to plug. This is USC’s division to lose.

Alger: Oregon and USC. The Ducks are replacing some important pieces at quarterback and on the offensive line, but a good defense got better, and it’s not like the Ducks were blowing teams out by 20 points per game last season. I will say I’m intrigued by what Cal can do with a healthy Chase Garbers. In the South, USC’s Kedon Slovis might be on the precipice of one of those “this guy is the best QB in the country” seasons, and I’ve heard quarterbacks are important.

3. What did you think about the Mel Tucker/Colorado situation?

Morales: I thought it was a humbling dose of reality for Colorado and the Pac-12. Tucker’s salary and his resources were increased significantly by Michigan State — and then the best coach Colorado could come up with was Karl Dorrell? It was an uninspiring sequence of events for a league that continues to fall behind its peers in so many areas.

Haller: Given the finances, most Pac-12 positions — coach on down — are just springboard jobs for better opportunities in the SEC and Big Ten. Michigan State more than doubled Tucker’s salary, making him one of the nation’s higher-paid coaches at $5.5 million per year. It gave him $6 million to spend on his staff. You can blame Tucker for how he handled it — tweeting that he was committed to Colorado wasn’t a good idea — but he did what most people would do in the same situation.

Caple: Money talks, right? That’s a lesson the Pac-12 will continue to learn for the foreseeable future. It’s too bad it all went down the way it did, with Tucker vowing loyalty to Colorado all the way up until he left town, but, hey, that’s business. Another program in a richer conference wants to double your salary and offer resources program-wide that you’ll never have at your current job? Yes, Virginia, there is a transfer portal in the real world. And there’s nothing realer than an annual salary of $5.5 million.

Lombardi: I tip my cap to Tucker for cashing in on one sub-.500 season. It’s impossible to know where exactly Colorado would have gone under Tucker’s continued leadership, but he reached an indisputably bigger job paying more money — even after a 5-7 season. We can talk about the Pac-12’s apparent lack of cachet or Michigan State’s possible overreach with this hire ad nauseam, but to me, the story is that Tucker already has accomplished an impressive individual feat regardless of how his tenure with the Spartans turns out. And now we can see how Karl Dorrell does in Boulder more than a decade after his UCLA teams kept opportunistically beating USC to extend his tenure with the Bruins.

Holmes: It really sucks for the players. The NCAA weighs down players with all these complicated transfer rules and conditions, but if a coach wants to circle back on his commitment and go elsewhere, there’s no punishment. I assume that many respected Mel Tucker for being a man of his word, but his decision to go to Michigan State — although I’m sure he saw it as the best choice for his career and his family — really hurts his credibility. I wouldn’t want to play for a coach I can’t trust.

Alger: I need to get Tucker’s agent. Maybe I should just get an agent, period. Anyway, it’s bad optics for the conference, but aside from Tucker saying he would stay, then immediately leaving, is anyone really surprised? The financial successes of the other conferences makes it easy for other schools to poach from the Pac-12’s mid-to-lower rungs. Colorado simply can’t compete with a school willing to double its 5-7 coach’s salary. What will be interesting is when schools start coming for the conference’s higher-tiered coaches.

Kamrani: If there’s one lesson I took from Tucker’s departure, it’s this: Never tweet. I think it’s a bummer for Colorado and the conference because Tucker’s ability to recruit to the West would’ve served the Pac-12 positively going forward. But when your salary is doubled? How many of us wouldn’t entertain the idea? The timing was awful, sure. But there are no moral grounds when it comes to the college football world and the revolving door of coaches bouncing from place to place. Michigan State flexed its Big Ten muscles and the Pac-12, yet again, looked minuscule in comparison. Among all of the issues in the conference, a head start would be getting the programs that can carry the weight — USC, Oregon, Washington and perhaps Utah — to become annual contenders for Playoff discussion. Oregon and Washington have been there; Utah was on the doorstep a year ago. Cannibals, I tell you: The Pac-12 must avoid the madness of the after-dark hours.

4. Gone are Chris Petersen, Mike Leach and Tucker. In are Jimmy Lake, Nick Rolovich and Karl Dorrell. Which new coach has the most to prove this spring?

Kamrani: Dorrell would be the easiest answer because his hiring was the most out of left field — and it’s not even close. I think the correct answer, though, is Lake, who seemingly was groomed for the gig and takes over a program that, if it remains on track, can compete for conference championships for years to come. He’s not the offensive guru that Petersen is/was, but Lake is a younger, more engaged coach who embraces the day-to-day things coaches in 2020 must do. Unfortunately for Lake, rival Oregon is in the same division and I think a Lake-Mario Cristobal rivalry is on tap for a while.

Lombardi: Dorrell. Outside of one 10-2 season at UCLA (2005), he was a .500 coach at UCLA. Sure, Lake and Rolovich are totally new to head coaching at the Pac-12 level, but Dorrell already has a track record of mediocrity from his days with the Bruins. It’s up to him to exceed that now with Colorado. The conference is as wide open as it’s ever been, especially with USC floundering in the South, so Dorrell must strike while the iron is hot.

Haller: Washington is an established program. Even though this is Lake’s first head-coaching job, it’s hard to see a significant drop. Colorado last season showed promise under Tucker, but I don’t see much changing in Boulder. That leaves Rolovich. For all his quirks, Leach elevated Washington State to a relatively high level. He won’t be easy to replace.

Alger: Lake. Of the programs with new coaches, Washington was, by far, the most appealing job. The school has resources, location and facilities. Lake played a part in the Petersen-era success and was the hand-picked replacement. But so, too, was Mark Helfrich.

Caple: Probably Lake because he’s taking over the program with the strongest foundation of that group, he’s replacing one of the most respected coaches in the country and he’s the only first-time head coach of the three. Plus, he has brought in a new offensive coordinator and is installing his own offense for the first time. There’s a lot to do.

Morales: Lake is taking over the best program and will have the highest level of expectations, so I’m going with him.

Holmes: Jimmy Lake is inheriting a program that expects to win immediately. Any setbacks will have fans undoubtedly questioning the hire. But I think Lake is built to be successful in this role. He comes across as an energetic coach who can really understand the mindset of his players. It might be rough sledding to start, but in time, I have zero doubt Lake will be able to build that program into a force.

5. Will Larry Scott be commissioner next year at this time?

Caple: I think so. His contract doesn’t expire for another two years, and while Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News explained in a recent story why a decision likely must be made on Scott before then, I don’t get the sense that the league’s CEO group — i.e., the presidents and chancellors — feel as strongly about Scott’s removal as, say, seemingly everyone else who pays attention to Pac-12 football. I have to ask, though: if Scott actually is ousted, will he announce it via live video to conference staffers?

Holmes: Nope. Simply put, Pac-12 football is a laughingstock. The league can’t wait until his contract expires in two years to make a move. In my opinion, it’s time to cut off the head of the snake and move the league in a new direction. Scott’s vision is broken. The time for change is now.

Kamrani: Until he’s not, I’ll say yes.

Alger: I think so. This thing turns as briskly as the Titanic.

Morales: I think so, but it’s clear some of the Pac-12’s leaders are concerned with the direction of the conference.

Lombardi: I think he will. Scott’s popularity on the inside of the conference seems to be much higher than it is in the court of public opinion, and that’s what ultimately matters here.

Haller: Man, I’m just hoping for better officiating. (But, yes, I think so.)

6. Any 2020 early enrollees to keep an eye on this spring at your school?

Haller: Arizona State went into Big Ten country and signed four-star running back DeaMonte Trayanum out of Akron, Ohio. Through two weeks of spring ball, he looks as advertised. He’s big. He’s strong. He runs well. Perhaps most important, he doesn’t look overwhelmed learning the offense. With Eno Benjamin off to the NFL, running back is a concern for the Sun Devils. Trayanum will get a chance to assume the lead role sooner rather than later.

Morales: USC already is loaded at receiver, so it seems like it would be hard for a true freshman to crack the rotation, but four-star prospect Gary Bryant Jr. — a national top-50 recruit — has speed that no one else in the receiver group possesses. He’d be an ideal fit in the slot, and he’ll have a chance to make an impact in the return game.

Caple: Washington is expected to have eight, four of whom already are on campus. The one I’m most interested in watching is four-star quarterback Ethan Garbers, who should at least have a chance to compete with Jacob Sirmon and Dylan Morris for the starting job. I’d expect the competition to mostly involve the two older guys, but Garbers is coming off a big senior season, the Huskies have a new coach and offensive coordinator, and I wouldn’t be completely shocked if Garbers makes some noise.

Kamrani: From a Utah perspective, this one is easy. It’s cornerback Clark Phillips III. Utah was able to flip the longtime Ohio State commitment in the early signing period. Phillips, from the L.A. suburbs, is the highest-rated recruit to ever land at Utah. And the Utes needed him desperately, considering they’re replacing their entire five-man secondary that featured multiple All-Americans and all-conference defensive backs. Phillips will slot in as a starter either outside or at the nickel on Day 1. There’s also quarterback Jake Bentley, who picked Utah soon after announcing he was leaving South Carolina as a graduate transfer in December. Bentley arrives in Salt Lake with 33 career SEC starts, and with Tyler Huntley graduated, Utah needed a veteran to compete for the job. Bentley and former Texas transfer Cam Rising will go at it in spring and presumably in preseason camp to see who gets the starting nod. Hard not to think it’s Bentley’s gig to lose, though.

Holmes: Junior college tight end Stacy Marshall has stood out through early spring practices at Arizona. He’s been one of the more energetic players out there on the practice field. Marshall has excellent size (6 feet 5, 248 pounds), is athletic and possesses good ball skills. Pass-catching tight ends haven’t been a thing at Arizona over the years, though senior starter Bryce Wolma has shown flashes here and there. Marshall could change that. He could be a real X-factor for the Wildcats in the passing game this season.

Alger: It could be a rough few weeks for Oregon running backs with the addition of five-star linebackers Noah Sewell and Justin Flowe. Sewell already is on campus and Flowe will arrive for the second half of Oregon spring practice.

Lombardi: Stanford doesn’t do early enrollees. Cal will have eight early enrollees suiting up this spring, but it’s tough to tell which ones — if any — will have a real shot to contribute this fall. The Bears’ offense returns starters at most key positions, and even though the defense has lost some important upperclassmen, it’s easier to envision developed players already in the program grabbing the open jobs than true freshmen.

(Top photo of Justin Herbert: Troy Wayrynen / USA Today)